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NEC vs FC Volendam 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

KNVB Beker - Season 2025/2026 Quarter-finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
NECNEC

1–0

FC VolendamFC Volendam
1.8Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances NEC would usually take 1.8 points and FC Volendam 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: NEC.

NEC +1.2 pts vs chancesFC Volendam −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

NEC vs FC Volendam stats: how the match was played

KNVB Beker

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

NEC had clearly more shots on target

NEC

FC Volendam

5

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

2

5

Corners

6

0

Yellow cards

2

50%

Possession

50%

The match between NEC and FC Volendam ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a NEC win with 60% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

NEC vs FC Volendam — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · KNVB Beker

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC to win

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,059 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,158 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 931 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.0% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 4,235 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

NEC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,457 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

FC Volendam Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Volendam 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

NEC vs FC Volendam 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for NEC vs FC Volendam. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
KNVB Beker - Netherlands
NECNEC1
FC VolendamFC Volendam0

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

160%
X21%
219%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT13%87%32%68%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT45%55%70%30%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
NEC13%87%36%64%
FC Volendam43%57%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
NEC62%38%81%19%
FC Volendam89%11%96%4%

1st Half

146%
X35%
219%

1st Score

165%
X3%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

18%

X-X

11%

2-2

9%

X-2

7%

2-1

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

9.8%

1-1

9.0%

2-0

7.7%

3-1

7.2%

1-0

6.9%

3-0

6.6%

2-2

5.9%

1-2

5.5%

3-2

4.2%

0-1

3.3%

0-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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