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AZ vs Telstar 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

KNVB Beker - Season 2025/2026 Semi-finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
AZAZ

2–1

TelstarTelstar
0.9Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances AZ would usually take 1.5 points and Telstar 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: AZ.

AZ +1.5 pts vs chancesTelstar −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

AZ vs Telstar stats: how the match was played

KNVB Beker

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

AZ

Telstar

1

Shots on target

1

1

Big chances

1

4

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

1

50%

Possession

51%

The match between AZ and Telstar ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a AZ win with 63% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Telstar – Almere City prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

AZ vs Telstar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · KNVB Beker

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AZ to win

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 1,057 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AZ ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

AZ Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AZ 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Telstar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Telstar 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,574 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

AZ vs Telstar 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AZ vs Telstar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
KNVB Beker - Netherlands
AZAZ2
TelstarTelstar1

Winner

1 63%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

163%
X20%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT51%49%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
AZ14%86%39%61%
Telstar46%54%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
AZ65%35%83%17%
Telstar92%8%98%2%

1st Half

145%
X36%
219%

1st Score

163%
X4%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

17%

X-X

11%

2-2

10%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

9.9%

2-0

9.3%

1-0

9.3%

1-1

9.1%

3-1

6.7%

3-0

6.6%

2-2

5.0%

1-2

4.5%

0-1

4.5%

0-0

4.2%

3-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Telstar – Almere City prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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