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Almería vs Real Oviedo

Almería vs Real Oviedo 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Robbed

Real Oviedo drew despite more chances

Almería

2–2

Real Oviedo

0.7Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances Almería would usually take 0.6 points and Real Oviedo 2.2; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Almería.

Almería +0.4 pts vs chancesReal Oviedo −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Almería vs Real Oviedo stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Real Oviedo had more than twice the shots on target

Almería

Real Oviedo

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

41%

Possession

60%

The match between Almería and Real Oviedo ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Almería win at 64% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: SD Eibar – Almería prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Almería vs Real Oviedo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Almería to win

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,699 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,102 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,398 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Almería ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,254 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 53.9% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Almería Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Almería 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Real Oviedo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Oviedo 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,566 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Almería vs Real Oviedo 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Almería vs Real Oviedo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

La Liga 2 - Spain

Almería2

Real Oviedo2

Winner

1 64%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

2-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

· FT

La Liga 2 - Spain

Almería2

Real Oviedo2

Winner

1 64%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

2-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

164%

X20%

216%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%	51%	49%	75%	25%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	51%	49%	75%	25%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	12%	88%	37%	63%	64%	36%	83%	17%
	47%	54%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	12%	88%	37%	63%
	47%	54%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	64%	36%	83%	17%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

152%

X37%

211%

1st Score

175%

X4%

221%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

46%

X-1

22%

X-X

11%

2-2

1-X

X-2

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

10.7%

2-0

9.4%

1-0

9.2%

1-1

9.2%

3-0

7.5%

3-1

6.8%

2-2

5.2%

1-2

5.0%

0-0

4.1%

3-2

3.9%

0-1

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Almería vs Real Oviedo — Recent Form

Almería have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Real Oviedo have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Almería

Real Oviedo

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Real Oviedo

3/5

Almería

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Real Oviedo

3/5

Almería

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Real Oviedo

3/5

Almería

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Real Oviedo

2/5

Almería

3/5

First Half Result

Real Oviedo

1/5

Almería

1/5

Correct Score

Real Oviedo

0/5

Almería

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: SD Eibar – Almería prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).