Home
Leagues
La Liga 2
Castellón vs Sporting Gijón

Castellón vs Sporting Gijón 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

Castellón

4–0

Sporting Gijón

1.6Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Castellón would usually take 1.9 points and Sporting Gijón 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Castellón.

Castellón +1.1 pts vs chancesSporting Gijón −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Castellón vs Sporting Gijón stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Castellón had more than twice the shots on target

Castellón

Sporting Gijón

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

48%

Possession

53%

The match between Castellón and Sporting Gijón ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Castellón win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ceuta – Sporting Gijón prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Castellón vs Sporting Gijón — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Castellón to win

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 1,803 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,186 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,997 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Castellón ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,288 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Castellón Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Castellón 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Sporting Gijón Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting Gijón 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,573 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Castellón vs Sporting Gijón 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Castellón vs Sporting Gijón. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

La Liga 2 - Spain

Castellón4

Sporting Gijón0

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

La Liga 2 - Spain

Castellón4

Sporting Gijón0

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

159%

X22%

219%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	58%	42%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	16%	84%	44%	56%	71%	29%	88%	12%
	45%	55%	78%	22%	94%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	16%	84%	44%	56%
	45%	55%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	71%	29%	88%	12%
	94%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

149%

X37%

214%

1st Score

169%

X6%

225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

43%

X-1

21%

X-X

12%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

10.8%

1-1

10.7%

2-1

10.2%

2-0

10.0%

3-0

6.5%

3-1

6.2%

0-0

5.7%

0-1

5.4%

1-2

5.0%

2-2

4.8%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Castellón vs Sporting Gijón — Recent Form

Castellón have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Sporting Gijón have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Castellón

Sporting Gijón

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Sporting Gijón

4/5

Castellón

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Sporting Gijón

1/5

Castellón

0/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sporting Gijón

3/5

Castellón

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Sporting Gijón

3/5

Castellón

4/5

First Half Result

Sporting Gijón

2/5

Castellón

2/5

Correct Score

Sporting Gijón

0/5

Castellón

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ceuta – Sporting Gijón prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).