Brick wall
6/10Castellón kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 26%).
Burgos vs Castellón Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Riding their luck
Castellón are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+5points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games. Burgos are also ahead of their chances: about +4 points.
Bookmakers: Castellón 46% to winBurgos 26%
Burgos vs Castellón score prediction
La Liga 2
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.4 goals in total, a little under the La Liga 2 average of 2.7.
goals expected
Burgos1.1Castellón1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Burgos vs Castellón: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Burgos vs Castellón — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga 2
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Castellón to win
Our model 47%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 3,530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 50%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 2,885 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 4,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 6,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
Burgos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Burgos 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 1,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).
Castellón Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Castellón 0–1 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 1,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 60.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Burgos vs Castellón — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Burgos vs Castellón. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Burgos–
Castellón–Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Burgos–Castellón–Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
128%
X26%
247%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 63% | 71% | 29% |
| 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
122%
X44%
234%
1st Score
138%
X7%
255%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
29%
X-2
19%
X-X
17%
1-1
11%
X-1
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.0%
0-1
10.9%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
5.2%
1-3
4.6%
0-3
4.2%
2-0
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Burgos vs Castellón: the stats that stand out
La Liga 2
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Castellón: brick wall and hard to break
6/10Hard to break
2/10Castellón conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Burgos vs Castellón: attack vs defence
La Liga 2
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other La Liga 2 teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Burgos: weak attack, weak defence (1.37 xG, 1.42 xGA a game)
- Castellón: good attack, good defence (1.53 xG, 1.10 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Burgos vs Castellón form and luck check
La Liga 2
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 La Liga 2 gamesBoth sides are winning more than their chances suggest
- BurgosBookmakers: 26% to win today.+4.3
- CastellónBookmakers: 46% to win today.Clinical · +5 goals+4.8
Last 5 matches
CastellónW
W
L
D
W
BurgosW
W
L
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Burgos 8th of 22 · Castellón 1st of 22
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 22 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Burgos vs Castellón: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
La Liga 2
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 La Liga 2 gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Burgos and Castellón games less often than the La Liga 2 average (56%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 51%
Burgos5 of 10
Castellón5 of 10
BTTSleague 56%
Burgos5 of 10
Castellón3 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 469 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Burgos vs Castellón corners, cards and goal times
La Liga 2
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.7
- Cards: league 2.7
- Goals before half-time: league 46%
- Goals after 75': league 24%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Burgos3/5
Castellón3/5
Both Teams to Score
Burgos4/5
Castellón0/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Burgos4/5
Castellón1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Burgos4/5
Castellón4/5
First Half Result
Burgos1/5
Castellón2/5
Correct Score
Burgos1/5
Castellón0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction