Always chasing
8/10Ceuta conceded first in 8 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Tenerife vs Ceuta Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 14)
Unlucky
Ceuta are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−10points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Tenerife are also behind their chances: about −4 points.
Bookmakers: Ceuta 20% to winTenerife 54%
Tenerife vs Ceuta score prediction
La Liga 2
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Tenerife expected to create clearly more
2.6 goals in total, a little under the La Liga 2 average of 2.7.
goals expected
Tenerife1.5Ceuta1.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Tenerife vs Ceuta: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Tenerife vs Ceuta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga 2
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Tenerife to win
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 1,795 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 3,084 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 51%
Our track record
In 5,130 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 3,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Tenerife Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Tenerife 0–1 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 1,899 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 40.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.5% than to our 50–55%.
Ceuta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ceuta 0–1 goals
Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 1,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Tenerife vs Ceuta — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Tenerife vs Ceuta. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Tenerife–
Ceuta–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Tenerife–Ceuta–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
156%
X25%
219%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 54% | 46% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 52% | 48% |
| 48% | 52% | 81% | 19% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 91% | 9% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
140%
X43%
218%
1st Score
158%
X9%
233%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
33%
X-1
20%
X-X
15%
2-2
10%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
13.8%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.9%
2-2
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Tenerife vs Ceuta: the stats that stand out
La Liga 2
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Ceuta: always chasing and leaky · Tenerife: flop as favourites
8/10Leaky
0/10Ceuta kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 25%).
Flop as favourites
1/6Tenerife won only 1 of 6 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Tenerife vs Ceuta: attack vs defence
La Liga 2
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other La Liga 2 teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Tenerife: weak attack, good defence (1.08 xG, 1.15 xGA a game)
- Ceuta: good attack, weak defence (1.79 xG, 1.44 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Tenerife vs Ceuta form and luck check
La Liga 2
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 La Liga 2 gamesBoth sides are getting less than their chances usually bring
- TenerifeBookmakers: 54% to win today.−4.0
- CeutaBookmakers: 20% to win today.Wasteful · −8 goals−10.1
Last 5 matches
TenerifeD
D
D
D
L
CeutaL
L
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Tenerife 16th of 22 · Ceuta 22nd of 22
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 22 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Tenerife vs Ceuta: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
La Liga 2
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 La Liga 2 gamesBTTS = both teams scoredTenerife games go over 2.5 goals less often than the La Liga 2 average (51%), Ceuta games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 51%
Tenerife3 of 10
Ceuta6 of 10
BTTSleague 56%
Tenerife7 of 10
Ceuta7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 467 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Tenerife vs Ceuta corners, cards and goal times
La Liga 2
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.8
- Cards: league 2.8
- Goals before half-time: league 46%
- Goals after 75': league 25%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Tenerife1/5
Ceuta2/5
Both Teams to Score
Tenerife3/5
Ceuta2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Tenerife3/5
Ceuta2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Tenerife3/5
Ceuta4/5
First Half Result
Tenerife2/5
Ceuta2/5
Correct Score
Tenerife2/5
Ceuta0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction