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Las Palmas vs Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Robbed

Las Palmas drew despite more chances

Las PalmasLas Palmas

1–1

Deportivo La CoruñaDeportivo La Coruña
1.9Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Las Palmas would usually take 2.1 points and Deportivo La Coruña 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Las Palmas.

Las Palmas −1.1 pts vs chancesDeportivo La Coruña +0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Las Palmas vs Deportivo La Coruña stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Las Palmas had more than twice the shots on target

Las Palmas

Deportivo La Coruña

6

Shots on target

3

5

Big chances

2

7

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

1

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Las Palmas and Deportivo La Coruña ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Las Palmas win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Las Palmas – Real Sociedad II prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Las Palmas vs Deportivo La Coruña — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Las Palmas to win

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Las Palmas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Las Palmas 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Deportivo La Coruña Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo La Coruña 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,349 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Las Palmas vs Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Las Palmas vs Deportivo La Coruña. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga 2 - Spain
Las PalmasLas Palmas1
Deportivo La CoruñaDeportivo La Coruña1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

142%
X29%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Las Palmas27%73%61%39%
Deportivo La Coruña35%65%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Las Palmas84%16%95%5%
Deportivo La Coruña90%10%97%3%

1st Half

131%
X45%
224%

1st Score

152%
X9%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

19%

2-2

16%

X-1

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.1%

1-0

11.1%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.9%

0-0

8.8%

1-2

7.3%

2-0

7.1%

2-2

5.5%

0-2

4.9%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Las Palmas – Real Sociedad II prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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