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Leganés vs Real Valladolid 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Fair result
LeganésLeganés

3–0

Real ValladolidReal Valladolid
1.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Leganés would usually take 1.9 points and Real Valladolid 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Leganés.

Leganés +1.2 pts vs chancesReal Valladolid −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Leganés vs Real Valladolid stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Leganés had more than twice the shots on target

Leganés

Real Valladolid

4

Shots on target

2

2

Big chances

2

4

Corners

8

4

Yellow cards

2

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Leganés and Real Valladolid ended 3-0. Our AI model predicted an Real Valladolid win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Leganés – Córdoba prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).

Leganés vs Real Valladolid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Valladolid to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Leganés to win.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 26%

Our track record

In 1,510 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,109 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 4,518 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,210 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Leganés Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leganés 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,677 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Real Valladolid Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Valladolid 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,661 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Leganés vs Real Valladolid 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Leganés vs Real Valladolid. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga 2 - Spain
LeganésLeganés3
Real ValladolidReal Valladolid0

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

134%
X26%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Leganés32%68%65%35%
Real Valladolid29%71%62%38%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Leganés86%14%96%4%
Real Valladolid84%16%95%5%

1st Half

125%
X48%
227%

1st Score

143%
X8%
249%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

19%

2-2

19%

1-1

17%

X-2

16%

X-1

14%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

0-1

10.2%

1-0

9.1%

1-2

8.4%

2-1

7.7%

0-0

7.5%

0-2

6.1%

2-0

5.5%

2-2

5.4%

1-3

3.7%

3-1

3.3%

0-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Leganés – Córdoba prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).

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