Burgos vs Leganés 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga 2 - Season 2025/2026 (Round 24)
Burgos2–1
LeganésOn these chances Burgos would usually take 1.1 points and Leganés 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Burgos.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Burgos vs Leganés stats: how the match was played
La Liga 2
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Burgos
Leganés
4
Shots on target
4
2
Big chances
1
1
Corners
5
4
Yellow cards
2
36%
Possession
64%
Burgos vs Leganés — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga 2
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Burgos to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,100 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 1,250 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).
Our model’s pick
Burgos 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,675 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Leganés 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,358 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Burgos vs Leganés 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Burgos vs Leganés. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Burgos2
Leganés1Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Burgos2Leganés1Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 34% | 66% | 60% | 40% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 68% | 32% |
| 36% | 64% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
X-X
20%
X-1
16%
2-2
16%
X-2
14%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.7%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score