2. Leagues
  3. La Liga 2
  4. Ceuta vs Real Valladolid

Ceuta vs Real Valladolid 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
CeutaCeuta

1–1

Real ValladolidReal Valladolid
1.1Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Ceuta would usually take 1.0 points and Real Valladolid 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Real Valladolid.

Ceuta 0.0 pts vs chancesReal Valladolid −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ceuta vs Real Valladolid stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Real Valladolid had more than twice the shots on target

Ceuta

Real Valladolid

3

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

5

3

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

4

1

Red cards

1

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Ceuta and Real Valladolid ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Ceuta win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Granada – Real Valladolid prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Ceuta vs Real Valladolid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ceuta to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Real Valladolid to win.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 29%

Our track record

In 1,057 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Ceuta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ceuta 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Real Valladolid Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Valladolid 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ceuta vs Real Valladolid 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ceuta vs Real Valladolid. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga 2 - Spain
CeutaCeuta1
Real ValladolidReal Valladolid1

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

141%
X26%
233%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Ceuta27%73%60%40%
Real Valladolid33%67%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Ceuta83%17%94%6%
Real Valladolid88%12%96%4%

1st Half

129%
X45%
226%

1st Score

152%
X7%
241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

18%

2-2

18%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.3%

1-0

9.8%

0-1

8.8%

2-1

8.7%

1-2

7.8%

0-0

7.4%

2-0

6.9%

2-2

5.5%

0-2

5.3%

3-1

4.2%

3-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Granada – Real Valladolid prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores