Leaky
0/10Villarreal kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 25%).
Villarreal vs Elche Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Unlucky
Villarreal are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−7points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Villarreal 66% to winElche 14%
Villarreal vs Elche score prediction
La Liga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.4 goals expected
3.4 goals in total: more goals than a typical La Liga game (average 2.8).
goals expected
Villarreal2.4
Elche1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Villarreal vs Elche: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Villarreal vs Elche — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Villarreal to win
Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 1,752 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 6,363 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 5,063 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 3,866 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Villarreal ahead at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 6,562 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Villarreal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Villarreal 2+ goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 2,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Elche Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Elche 0–1 goals
Our model 78%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 2,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Villarreal vs Elche — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Villarreal vs Elche. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Villarreal–
Elche–Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Villarreal–Elche–Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
159%
X24%
217%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 84% | 45% | 55% |
| 47% | 53% | 78% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 28% | 89% | 11% |
| 94% | 6% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
144%
X41%
216%
1st Score
167%
X7%
226%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
37%
X-1
19%
X-X
13%
2-2
9%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
12.1%
1-1
10.5%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
10.0%
0-0
6.8%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.1%
0-1
5.1%
1-2
5.0%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Villarreal vs Elche: the stats that stand out
La Liga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Villarreal: leaky and flop as favourites · Elche: always on the scoresheet
0/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Elche failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 25%).
Flop as favourites
3/8Villarreal won only 3 of 8 as favourites (league 56%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Elche: attack vs defence
La Liga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other La Liga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Villarreal: good attack, good defence (1.89 xG, 1.36 xGA a game)
- Elche: weak attack, weak defence (1.17 xG, 1.49 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Elche form and luck check
La Liga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 La Liga gamesVillarreal are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- VillarrealBookmakers: 66% to win today.−6.7
- ElcheBookmakers: 14% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals−0.9
Last 5 matches
VillarrealL
W
W
L
L
ElcheW
L
D
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Villarreal 4th of 20 · Elche 18th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Elche: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
La Liga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 La Liga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredVillarreal and Elche games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the La Liga average (51%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 51%
Villarreal8 of 10
Elche6 of 10
BTTSleague 56%
Villarreal8 of 10
Elche8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 370 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Elche corners, cards and goal times
La Liga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameVillarreal score early, Elche late
Villarreal
Elche
7.1
Corners won · league 4.8
3.7
4.0
Corners conceded · league 4.8
4.0
1.6
Cards · league 2.3
2.8
2.1
Opponents' cards · league 2.3
2.2
65%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
36%
20%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
36%
67%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
55%
17%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
20%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Elche2/5
Villarreal1/5
Both Teams to Score
Elche3/5
Villarreal4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Elche3/5
Villarreal5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Elche1/5
Villarreal2/5
First Half Result
Elche2/5
Villarreal2/5
Correct Score
Elche0/5
Villarreal0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction