Fast starters
8/10Derry City scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 45%).
Drogheda United vs Derry City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier Division - Season 2026 (Round 34)
Clinical
Derry City are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+3goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Drogheda United vs Derry City score prediction
Premier Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little under the Premier Division average of 2.7.
goals expected
Drogheda United1.1Derry City1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →The match Drogheda United vs Derry City will be played on Friday, October 16 as part of the 2026 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 34 of the Premier Division, played in Republic of Ireland. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Drogheda United vs Derry City, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Drogheda United vs Derry City — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Drogheda United vs Derry City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Drogheda United–
Derry City–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Drogheda United–Derry City–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
134%
X27%
239%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 65% | 35% |
| 28% | 72% | 61% | 39% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
129%
X44%
227%
1st Score
149%
X7%
244%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
2-2
19%
X-X
17%
X-2
14%
X-1
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.6%
0-1
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
0-0
7.0%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.7%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Drogheda United vs Derry City: the stats that stand out
Premier Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Derry City: fast starters, always on the scoresheet and brick wall
8/10Always on the scoresheet
0/10Derry City scored in all of their last 10 (league 25% fail to score).
Brick wall
4/10Derry City kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 25%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Drogheda United vs Derry City: attack vs defence
Premier Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Drogheda United: weak attack, weak defence (1.26 xG, 1.53 xGA a game)
- Derry City: good attack, good defence (1.52 xG, 1.46 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Drogheda United vs Derry City form and luck check
Premier Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier Division gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Drogheda United+1.4
- Derry CityClinical · +3 goals+1.4
Last 5 matches
Derry CityW
D
W
D
L
Drogheda UnitedL
W
W
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Drogheda United 9th of 10 · Derry City 4th of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 10 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Drogheda United vs Derry City: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredDerry City games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Premier Division average (50%), Drogheda United games about as often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 50%
Drogheda United5 of 10
Derry City4 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Drogheda United5 of 10
Derry City6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 180 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Drogheda United vs Derry City corners, cards and goal times
Premier Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Premier Division average
Drogheda United
Derry City
4.4
Corners won · league 5.1
5.3
6.3
Corners conceded · league 5.1
5.3
1.5
Cards · league 2.2
2.5
1.5
Opponents' cards · league 2.2
1.9
55%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
44%
18%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
28%
62%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
25%
31%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
38%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Derry City2/5
Drogheda United4/5
Both Teams to Score
Derry City3/5
Drogheda United3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Derry City2/5
Drogheda United5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Derry City2/5
Drogheda United4/5
First Half Result
Derry City3/5
Drogheda United2/5
Correct Score
Derry City1/5
Drogheda United0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction