Fast starters
8/10Derry City scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 45%).
Derry City vs St Patrick's Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier Division - Season 2026 (Round 33)
Clinical
Derry City are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+3goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Derry City 31% to winSt Patrick's 41%
Derry City vs St Patrick's score prediction
Premier Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.4 goals in total, a little under the Premier Division average of 2.7.
goals expected
Derry City1.1
St Patrick's1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Derry City vs St Patrick's: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Derry City vs St Patrick's — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
St Patrick's to win
Our model 39%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 2,041 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.4% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Derry City vs St Patrick's — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Derry City vs St Patrick's. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Derry City–
St Patrick's–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Derry City–St Patrick's–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
135%
X26%
239%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 64% | 36% |
| 27% | 73% | 60% | 40% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
127%
X45%
228%
1st Score
143%
X7%
251%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
21%
1-1
20%
X-X
17%
X-2
14%
X-1
13%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.0%
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
6.7%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.4%
1-3
4.0%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Derry City vs St Patrick's: the stats that stand out
Premier Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Derry City: fast starters and always on the scoresheet · St Patrick's: brick wall
8/10Brick wall
5/10St Patrick's kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 25%).
Always on the scoresheet
0/10Derry City scored in all of their last 10 (league 25% fail to score).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Derry City vs St Patrick's: attack vs defence
Premier Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Derry City: good attack, good defence (1.52 xG, 1.46 xGA a game)
- St Patrick's: good attack, good defence (1.80 xG, 1.16 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Derry City vs St Patrick's form and luck check
Premier Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier Division gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Derry CityBookmakers: 31% to win today.Clinical · +3 goals+1.4
- St Patrick'sBookmakers: 41% to win today.+1.2
Last 5 matches
St Patrick'sW
W
W
L
W
Derry CityW
D
W
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Derry City 4th of 10 · St Patrick's 1st of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 10 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Derry City vs St Patrick's: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredDerry City and St Patrick's games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the Premier Division average (50%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 50%
Derry City4 of 10
St Patrick's3 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Derry City6 of 10
St Patrick's4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 180 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Derry City vs St Patrick's corners, cards and goal times
Premier Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameSt Patrick's score early
Derry City
St Patrick's
5.3
Corners won · league 5.1
5.2
5.3
Corners conceded · league 5.1
5.2
2.5
Cards · league 2.2
1.5
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.2
2.5
44%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
65%
28%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
18%
25%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
33%
38%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Derry City2/5
St Patrick's3/5
Both Teams to Score
Derry City3/5
St Patrick's0/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Derry City2/5
St Patrick's2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Derry City2/5
St Patrick's4/5
First Half Result
Derry City3/5
St Patrick's0/5
Correct Score
Derry City1/5
St Patrick's1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction