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Chesterfield vs Morecambe 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2024/2025 (Round 45)

Fair result
ChesterfieldChesterfield

4–1

MorecambeMorecambe
2.2Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Chesterfield would usually take 2.3 points and Morecambe 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Chesterfield.

Chesterfield +0.7 pts vs chancesMorecambe −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Chesterfield vs Morecambe stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Chesterfield had more than twice the shots on target

Chesterfield

Morecambe

10

Shots on target

2

5

Big chances

2

8

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

2

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Chesterfield and Morecambe ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Chesterfield win with 65% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Port Vale – Chesterfield prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Chesterfield vs Morecambe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield to win

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.3% of the time (bookmakers said 70.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,942 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 4,209 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Chesterfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,436 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Morecambe Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Morecambe 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.7% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Chesterfield vs Morecambe 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chesterfield vs Morecambe. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
ChesterfieldChesterfield4
MorecambeMorecambe1

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

165%
X20%
214%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%42%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Chesterfield14%86%41%59%
Morecambe52%48%82%18%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Chesterfield68%32%86%14%
Morecambe95%5%99%1%

1st Half

146%
X39%
215%

1st Score

166%
X6%
228%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

21%

X-X

12%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

12.7%

2-0

11.8%

2-1

9.6%

1-1

9.3%

3-0

7.9%

3-1

6.6%

0-0

6.1%

0-1

4.7%

2-2

4.1%

1-2

3.5%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Port Vale – Chesterfield prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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