Hard to break
2/10Newport County conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Newport County vs Colchester United Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Clinical
Newport County are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+4goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Newport County 36% to winColchester United 38%
Newport County vs Colchester United score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.5 goals in total, a little under the League Two average of 2.6.
goals expected
Newport County1.2
Colchester United1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Newport County vs Colchester United: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Newport County vs Colchester United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Newport County to win
Our model 38%Bookmakers 36%
Our track record
In 1,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 6,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Newport County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Newport County 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,625 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Colchester United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Colchester United 0–1 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 3,159 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Newport County vs Colchester United — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Newport County vs Colchester United. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Newport County–
Colchester United–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Newport County–Colchester United–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
138%
X27%
235%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 70% | 65% | 35% |
| 32% | 68% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
129%
X41%
230%
1st Score
146%
X8%
245%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
2-2
20%
X-X
17%
X-2
14%
X-1
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.9%
0-1
9.9%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Newport County vs Colchester United: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Newport County: hard to break · Colchester United: leaky
2/10Leaky
1/10Colchester United kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Newport County vs Colchester United: attack vs defence
League Two
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Newport County: weak attack, weak defence (1.07 xG, 1.40 xGA a game)
- Colchester United: weak attack, weak defence (1.22 xG, 1.63 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Newport County vs Colchester United form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Newport CountyBookmakers: 36% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals+2.1
- Colchester UnitedBookmakers: 38% to win today.+1.3
Last 5 matches
Newport CountyD
W
D
D
L
Colchester UnitedD
D
D
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Newport County 24th of 24 · Colchester United 8th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Newport County vs Colchester United: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Newport County and Colchester United games more often than the League Two average (52%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Newport County6 of 10
Colchester United5 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Newport County6 of 10
Colchester United7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 529 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Newport County vs Colchester United corners, cards and goal times
League Two
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameNewport County score late
Newport County
Colchester United
4.1
Corners won · league 4.9
3.8
5.4
Corners conceded · league 4.9
5.5
1.7
Cards · league 1.9
1.2
2.7
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
2.6
36%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
50%
36%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
29%
15%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
36%
38%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
43%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Newport County1/5
Colchester United2/5
Both Teams to Score
Newport County1/5
Colchester United4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Newport County4/5
Colchester United2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Newport County5/5
Colchester United3/5
First Half Result
Newport County4/5
Colchester United2/5
Correct Score
Newport County1/5
Colchester United2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction