Shot-shy
4/7Port Vale failed to score in 4 of their last 7 (league 28%).
Port Vale vs Chesterfield Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Unlucky
Port Vale are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 7 with xG
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Chesterfield are also behind their chances: about −4 points.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.4 goals in total, a little under the League Two average of 2.6.
goals expected
Port Vale1.2
Chesterfield1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →The match Port Vale vs Chesterfield will be played on Saturday, October 17 as part of the 2026/2027 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 11 of the League Two, played in England. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Port Vale vs Chesterfield, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Port Vale vs Chesterfield. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Port Vale–
Chesterfield–Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Port Vale–Chesterfield–Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Full Time
133%
X28%
239%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 56% | 44% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 67% | 33% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34% | 66% | 69% | 31% |
| 30% | 70% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
124%
X47%
230%
1st Score
141%
X9%
250%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
21%
X-X
19%
1-1
17%
X-2
15%
X-1
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.1%
1-0
9.8%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Port Vale vs Chesterfield: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Port Vale: shot-shy · Chesterfield: flop as favourites
4/7Flop as favourites
2/7Chesterfield won only 2 of 7 as favourites (league 49%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Chesterfield: attack vs defence
League Two
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Port Vale: weak attack, good defence (1.13 xG, 1.04 xGA a game)
- Chesterfield: good attack, good defence (1.93 xG, 1.09 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Chesterfield form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesBoth sides are getting less than their chances usually bring
- Port Vale7 of 10 gamesWasteful · −5 goals−5.0
- ChesterfieldWasteful · −5 goals−4.3
Last 5 matches
ChesterfieldW
L
W
W
D
Port ValeL
W
L
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Port Vale 9th of 24 · Chesterfield 4th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Chesterfield: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredPort Vale games go over 2.5 goals less often than the League Two average (48%), Chesterfield games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Port Vale1 of 7
Chesterfield5 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Port Vale2 of 7
Chesterfield6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 528 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Chesterfield corners, cards and goal times
League Two
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gamePort Vale: last 7 with these statsChesterfield score late
Port Vale
Chesterfield
4.7
Corners won · league 4.9
6.0
4.6
Corners conceded · league 4.9
2.9
2.1
Cards · league 1.9
1.7
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
2.4
67%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
33%
0%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
40%
22%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
50%
22%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
25%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Chesterfield2/5
Port Vale4/5
Both Teams to Score
Chesterfield2/5
Port Vale2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Chesterfield2/5
Port Vale3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Chesterfield3/5
Port Vale4/5
First Half Result
Chesterfield1/5
Port Vale4/5
Correct Score
Chesterfield0/5
Port Vale1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction