Hard to break
2/10Newport County conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Newport County vs York City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in Newport County vs York City
2.8goals expected · League Two average 2.6
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Newport County vs York City score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert2.8 goals expected
2.8 goals in total, a little over the League Two average of 2.6.
goals expected
Newport County1.1
York City1.6Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →The match Newport County vs York City will be played on Saturday, October 17 as part of the 2026/2027 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 11 of the League Two, played in England. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Newport County vs York City, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Newport County vs York City — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Newport County vs York City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Newport County–
York City–Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Newport County–York City–Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
133%
X25%
242%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| 27% | 73% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 81% | 19% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
122%
X37%
241%
1st Score
135%
X7%
258%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
32%
X-2
16%
1-1
14%
X-X
14%
X-1
9%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.5%
0-1
9.0%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
7.3%
0-0
6.7%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
1-3
4.2%
0-3
3.7%
3-1
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Newport County vs York City: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Newport County: hard to break · York City: always on the scoresheet
2/10Always on the scoresheet
1/8York City failed to score in only 1 of their last 8 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Newport County vs York City: attack vs defence
League Two
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Newport County: weak attack, weak defence (1.07 xG, 1.40 xGA a game)
- York City: good attack, good defence (1.76 xG, 1.24 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Newport County vs York City form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Newport CountyClinical · +4 goals+2.1
- York City8 of 10 games−0.8
Last 5 matches
York CityW
L
W
D
L
Newport CountyD
W
D
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Newport County 24th of 24 · York City 3rd of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Newport County vs York City: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredNewport County and York City games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the League Two average (48%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Newport County6 of 10
York City5 of 8
BTTSleague 52%
Newport County6 of 10
York City5 of 8
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 528 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Newport County vs York City corners, cards and goal times
League Two
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameYork City: last 8 with these statsNewport County score late
Newport County
York City
4.1
Corners won · league 4.9
6.3
5.4
Corners conceded · league 4.9
4.4
1.7
Cards · league 1.9
1.3
2.7
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.9
36%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
44%
36%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
25%
15%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
40%
38%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
40%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Newport County1/5
York City3/5
Both Teams to Score
Newport County1/5
York City2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Newport County4/5
York City4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Newport County5/5
York City3/5
First Half Result
Newport County4/5
York City4/5
Correct Score
Newport County1/5
York City1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction