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Saint-Étienne vs Bastia 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2025/2026 (Round 17)

Robbed

Saint-Étienne drew despite more chances

Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne

2–2

BastiaBastia
2.2Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Saint-Étienne would usually take 2.4 points and Bastia 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Saint-Étienne.

Saint-Étienne −1.4 pts vs chancesBastia +0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Saint-Étienne vs Bastia stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Saint-Étienne had more than twice the shots on target

Saint-Étienne

Bastia

10

Shots on target

2

5

Big chances

1

5

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

5

77%

Possession

23%

The match between Saint-Étienne and Bastia ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Saint-Étienne win at 52% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Saint-Étienne – Nantes prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Saint-Étienne vs Bastia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Saint-Étienne to win

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,468 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 70%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,950 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Saint-Étienne ahead at half-time.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,211 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Saint-Étienne Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Saint-Étienne 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Saint-Étienne 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Bastia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bastia 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,349 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Saint-Étienne vs Bastia 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Saint-Étienne vs Bastia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne2
BastiaBastia2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

152%
X25%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%48%52%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Saint-Étienne20%80%51%49%
Bastia41%59%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Saint-Étienne76%24%90%10%
Bastia91%9%97%3%

1st Half

138%
X39%
223%

1st Score

155%
X7%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-X

16%

X-1

14%

2-2

14%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.1%

1-0

10.8%

2-1

9.4%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

6.8%

0-1

6.4%

1-2

6.0%

2-2

5.3%

3-0

5.2%

3-1

5.1%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Saint-Étienne – Nantes prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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