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Pau vs Dunkerque 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result
PauPau

2–0

DunkerqueDunkerque
3.2Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Pau would usually take 2.6 points and Dunkerque 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Pau.

Pau +0.4 pts vs chancesDunkerque −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Pau vs Dunkerque stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Pau had more than twice the shots on target

Pau

Dunkerque

10

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

2

6

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

2

0

Red cards

1

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Pau and Dunkerque ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Pau win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dunkerque – Metz prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Pau vs Dunkerque — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pau to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Pau Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pau 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Dunkerque Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dunkerque 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Pau vs Dunkerque 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Pau vs Dunkerque. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
PauPau2
DunkerqueDunkerque0

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

140%
X28%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%52%48%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Pau28%72%62%38%
Dunkerque33%67%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Pau85%15%95%5%
Dunkerque88%12%96%4%

1st Half

131%
X43%
226%

1st Score

151%
X8%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

19%

X-X

16%

X-1

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

1-0

10.4%

2-1

8.7%

0-1

8.7%

0-0

8.3%

1-2

7.6%

2-0

6.8%

2-2

5.6%

0-2

5.1%

3-1

3.7%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dunkerque – Metz prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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