Toronto vs CF Montréal 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
Toronto2–1
CF MontréalOn these chances Toronto would usually take 1.3 points and CF Montréal 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Toronto.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Toronto vs CF Montréal stats: how the match was played
Major League Soccer
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
CF Montréal had clearly more shots on target
Toronto
CF Montréal
5
Shots on target
7
4
Big chances
2
8
Corners
6
1
Yellow cards
3
51%
Possession
49%
Toronto vs CF Montréal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Toronto to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,422 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,374 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,076 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,883 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Toronto ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,154 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Toronto 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Toronto 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,823 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
CF Montréal 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Toronto vs CF Montréal 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Toronto vs CF Montréal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Toronto2
CF Montréal1Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Toronto2CF Montréal1Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 53% | 47% |
| 39% | 61% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 91% | 9% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
X-1
15%
2-2
15%
X-X
14%
X-2
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.4%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.2%
0-0
7.1%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Toronto vs CF Montréal — Recent Form
Toronto have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table. CF Montréal have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.
Last 5 matches
TorontoCF MontréalOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
TorontoCF MontréalBoth Teams to Score
TorontoCF MontréalOver/Under 2.5 Goals
TorontoCF MontréalOver/Under 3.5 Goals
TorontoCF MontréalFirst Half Result
TorontoCF MontréalCorrect Score
TorontoCF Montréal