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MTK vs Kazincbarcika 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

NB I. - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Smash-and-grab

Kazincbarcika won with fewer chances than MTK

MTKMTK

1–3

KazincbarcikaKazincbarcika
2.6Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances MTK would usually take 1.9 points and Kazincbarcika 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: MTK.

MTK −1.9 pts vs chancesKazincbarcika +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

MTK vs Kazincbarcika stats: how the match was played

NB I.

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

MTK had clearly more shots on target

MTK

Kazincbarcika

6

Shots on target

4

6

Big chances

4

10

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

2

65%

Possession

35%

The match between MTK and Kazincbarcika ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a MTK win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ferencváros – MTK prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

MTK vs Kazincbarcika — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · NB I.

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MTK to win

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 941 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: MTK ahead at half-time.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

MTK Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MTK 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Kazincbarcika Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kazincbarcika 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

MTK vs Kazincbarcika 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for MTK vs Kazincbarcika. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
NB I. - Hungary
MTKMTK1
KazincbarcikaKazincbarcika3

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

145%
X25%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%38%62%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%75%25%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
MTK22%78%49%51%
Kazincbarcika32%68%62%38%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
MTK74%26%89%11%
Kazincbarcika84%16%94%6%

1st Half

135%
X39%
226%

1st Score

152%
X5%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

2-1

8.8%

1-2

7.1%

2-2

7.1%

1-0

6.9%

2-0

5.9%

0-1

5.7%

3-1

5.1%

0-0

5.0%

3-2

4.3%

0-2

3.8%

3-0

3.6%

1-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ferencváros – MTK prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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