Várda SE vs Puskás 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
NB I. - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)
Várda SE1–0
PuskásOn these chances Várda SE would usually take 0.9 points and Puskás 1.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Puskás.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Várda SE vs Puskás stats: how the match was played
NB I.
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Puskás had clearly more shots on target
Várda SE
Puskás
4
Shots on target
6
2
Big chances
2
6
Corners
11
6
Yellow cards
1
38%
Possession
62%
Várda SE vs Puskás — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · NB I.
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Várda SE to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Puskás to win.
Our track record
In 1,520 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,553 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Várda SE 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Puskás 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Várda SE vs Puskás 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Várda SE vs Puskás. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Várda SE1
Puskás0Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Várda SE1Puskás0Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 62% | 38% |
| 30% | 70% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
22%
1-1
20%
X-X
16%
X-2
13%
X-1
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.5%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
5.9%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score