MTK vs Diósgyőr 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
NB I. - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)
MTK1–1
DiósgyőrOn these chances MTK would usually take 1.1 points and Diósgyőr 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: MTK.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →MTK vs Diósgyőr stats: how the match was played
NB I.
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
MTK
Diósgyőr
3
Shots on target
4
1
Big chances
2
11
Corners
3
3
Yellow cards
3
59%
Possession
41%
MTK vs Diósgyőr — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · NB I.
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
MTK to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,158 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
MTK ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,211 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
MTK 2+ goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: MTK 0–1 goals.
Our track record
In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.0% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Diósgyőr 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,268 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
MTK vs Diósgyőr 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for MTK vs Diósgyőr. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
MTK1
Diósgyőr1Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
MTK1Diósgyőr1Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 14% | 86% | 32% | 68% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 45% | 55% | 70% | 30% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 84% | 41% | 59% |
| 36% | 64% | 65% | 35% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 33% | 84% | 16% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
30%
2-2
16%
X-1
15%
X-X
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
6.8%
1-2
6.6%
1-0
6.3%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
6.3%
3-0
4.7%
3-2
4.4%
0-1
4.1%
0-0
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score