Always on the scoresheet
1/10AFC Bournemouth failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 25%).
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AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Unlucky
AFC Bournemouth are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−4points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: AFC Bournemouth 43% to winLeeds United 29%
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.7 goals in total, a little under the Premier League average of 2.8.
goals expected
AFC Bournemouth1.6
Leeds United1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
AFC Bournemouth to win
Our model 54%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 2,464 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 52%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 3,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
AFC Bournemouth ahead at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 34%
Our track record
In 2,224 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
AFC Bournemouth Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
AFC Bournemouth 0–1 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 2,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Leeds United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Leeds United 0–1 goals
Our model 79%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,578 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
AFC Bournemouth–
Leeds United–Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
AFC Bournemouth–Leeds United–Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
154%
X26%
220%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 53% | 47% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 52% | 48% |
| 47% | 53% | 79% | 21% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 90% | 10% |
| 94% | 6% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
142%
X40%
218%
1st Score
158%
X9%
233%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
18%
X-X
13%
2-2
10%
X-2
8%
2-1
5%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
13.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
9.7%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
5.1%
3-1
4.8%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United: the stats that stand out
Premier League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%AFC Bournemouth: always on the scoresheet
1/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United: attack vs defence
Premier League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- AFC Bournemouth: good attack, good defence (1.61 xG, 1.18 xGA a game)
- Leeds United: weak attack, weak defence (1.24 xG, 1.59 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesAFC Bournemouth are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- AFC BournemouthBookmakers: 43% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−4.4
- Leeds UnitedBookmakers: 29% to win today.+3.4
Last 5 matches
Leeds UnitedD
L
D
W
D
AFC BournemouthW
L
L
D
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: AFC Bournemouth 7th of 20 · Leeds United 12th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredAFC Bournemouth and Leeds United games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the Premier League average (55%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
AFC Bournemouth4 of 10
Leeds United3 of 10
BTTSleague 57%
AFC Bournemouth7 of 10
Leeds United6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 370 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameAFC Bournemouth score early
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
4.5
Corners won · league 5.0
4.1
5.0
Corners conceded · league 5.0
5.7
2.9
Cards · league 2.0
1.8
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
2.0
58%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
36%
0%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
27%
33%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
20%
33%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
30%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
AFC Bournemouth2/5
Leeds United1/5
Both Teams to Score
AFC Bournemouth3/5
Leeds United2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
AFC Bournemouth3/5
Leeds United3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
AFC Bournemouth2/5
Leeds United4/5
First Half Result
AFC Bournemouth3/5
Leeds United1/5
Correct Score
AFC Bournemouth0/5
Leeds United1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction