Banker as favourites
9/10Arsenal won 9 of 10 as favourites (league 49%).
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Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Riding their luck
Arsenal are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+7points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Arsenal 45% to winLiverpool 29%
Liverpool vs Arsenal score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little under the Premier League average of 2.8.
goals expected
Liverpool1.2Arsenal1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Liverpool vs Arsenal: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Liverpool vs Arsenal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Arsenal to win
Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 3,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,685 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 3,949 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 40%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Liverpool Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Liverpool 0–1 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,674 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Arsenal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Arsenal 0–1 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 1,005 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.2% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Liverpool vs Arsenal — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Liverpool vs Arsenal. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Liverpool–
Arsenal–Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Liverpool–Arsenal–Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Full Time
129%
X25%
246%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 56% | 44% | 80% | 20% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 67% | 33% |
| 22% | 78% | 52% | 48% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
130%
X40%
230%
1st Score
148%
X6%
246%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
25%
1-1
20%
X-X
15%
X-2
13%
X-1
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.0%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.0%
0-3
4.2%
2-0
4.2%
2-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Liverpool vs Arsenal: the stats that stand out
Premier League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Arsenal: banker as favourites, brick wall and fast starters
9/10Brick wall
6/10Arsenal kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 25%).
Fast starters
7/10Arsenal scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Arsenal: attack vs defence
Premier League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Liverpool: good attack, good defence (1.61 xG, 1.32 xGA a game)
- Arsenal: good attack, good defence (1.53 xG, 0.98 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Arsenal form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesArsenal are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- LiverpoolBookmakers: 29% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−2.3
- ArsenalBookmakers: 45% to win today.+6.9
Last 5 matches
ArsenalW
W
L
W
W
LiverpoolW
L
W
D
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Liverpool 5th of 20 · Arsenal 2nd of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Arsenal: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Arsenal games less often than the Premier League average (57%), in Liverpool games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Liverpool5 of 10
Arsenal5 of 10
BTTSleague 57%
Liverpool6 of 10
Arsenal3 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 370 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Arsenal corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Premier League average
Liverpool
Arsenal
6.3
Corners won · league 5.0
4.3
3.9
Corners conceded · league 5.0
3.8
2.4
Cards · league 2.0
1.5
2.6
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
2.9
23%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
33%
23%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
20%
36%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
50%
14%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Liverpool2/5
Arsenal4/5
Both Teams to Score
Liverpool1/5
Arsenal3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Liverpool2/5
Arsenal5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Liverpool5/5
Arsenal5/5
First Half Result
Liverpool1/5
Arsenal1/5
Correct Score
Liverpool0/5
Arsenal2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction