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Manchester City vs Everton

Manchester City vs Everton 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2024/2025 (Round 18)

Robbed

Manchester City drew despite more chances

Manchester City

1–1

Everton

2.4Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Manchester City would usually take 2.4 points and Everton 0.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Manchester City.

Manchester City −1.4 pts vs chancesEverton +0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Manchester City vs Everton stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Manchester City had clearly more shots on target

Manchester City

Everton

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Manchester City and Everton ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Manchester City win at 74% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Manchester City – Brighton & Hove Albion prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Manchester City vs Everton — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City to win

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 324 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 538 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 5,324 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 2,411 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 108 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Manchester City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,676 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Everton Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Everton 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 88%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 603 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Manchester City vs Everton 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Manchester City vs Everton. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Manchester City1

Everton1

Winner

1 74%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

2-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Premier League - England

Manchester City1

Everton1

Winner

1 74%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

2-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

174%

X17%

28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	40%	60%	52%	48%	72%	28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	40%	60%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	72%	28%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	11%	89%	32%	68%	57%	43%	77%	23%
	63%	37%	88%	12%	96%	4%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	11%	89%	32%	68%
	63%	37%	88%	12%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	57%	43%	77%	23%
	96%	4%	99%	1%

1st Half

160%

X29%

211%

1st Score

171%

X6%

223%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

54%

X-1

18%

X-X

2-1

1-X

X-2

2-2

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

12.4%

1-0

11.3%

3-0

10.3%

2-1

8.8%

1-1

6.9%

3-1

6.3%

0-0

5.8%

2-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Manchester City – Brighton & Hove Albion prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).