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Chelsea vs Fulham 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2024/2025 (Round 18)

Fair result
ChelseaChelsea

1–2

FulhamFulham
1.7Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Chelsea would usually take 1.5 points and Fulham 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Chelsea.

Chelsea −1.5 pts vs chancesFulham +1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Chelsea vs Fulham stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Chelsea

Fulham

8

Shots on target

7

3

Big chances

3

3

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

3

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Chelsea and Fulham ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Chelsea win at 61% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chelsea – Manchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Chelsea vs Fulham — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea to win

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 5,324 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 2,411 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,256 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Chelsea Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,486 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Fulham Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fulham 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Chelsea vs Fulham 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chelsea vs Fulham. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - England
ChelseaChelsea1
FulhamFulham2

Winner

1 61%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

161%
X22%
217%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%43%57%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%76%24%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Chelsea16%84%41%59%
Fulham48%52%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Chelsea66%34%84%16%
Fulham93%7%98%2%

1st Half

151%
X32%
217%

1st Score

160%
X6%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

47%

X-1

16%

X-X

9%

2-2

7%

1-X

5%

X-2

5%

2-1

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

10.6%

1-1

9.4%

2-0

9.2%

2-1

9.1%

3-0

6.5%

3-1

6.3%

0-0

6.2%

0-1

5.2%

2-2

4.7%

1-2

4.0%

3-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chelsea – Manchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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