Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 3-0 Score & Prediction Review
Premier League - Season 2024/2025 (Round 18)
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Newcastle United to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,433 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 5,606 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,240 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,339 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.0%).
Our model’s pick
Newcastle United ahead at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,173 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Newcastle United 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,773 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Aston Villa 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,213 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Newcastle United3
Aston Villa0Winner
1X 74%
BTTS**
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Newcastle United3Aston Villa0Winner
1X 74%
BTTS**
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 40% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19% | 81% | 48% | 52% |
 | 36% | 64% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
33%
X-1
15%
X-X
13%
2-2
13%
X-2
8%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
3-0
4.7%
0-0
4.3%
3-2
3.9%
0-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score