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Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2024/2025 (Round 18)

Fair result

Newcastle United

3–0

Aston Villa

2.2Chances (xG)0.3

On these chances Newcastle United would usually take 2.6 points and Aston Villa 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Newcastle United.

Newcastle United +0.4 pts vs chancesAston Villa −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Newcastle United had more than twice the shots on target

Newcastle United

Aston Villa

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

64%

Possession

37%

The match between Newcastle United and Aston Villa ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Newcastle United win with 50% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aston Villa – Fulham prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United to win

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 3,517 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,324 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,411 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,253 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Newcastle United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,823 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Newcastle United3

Aston Villa0

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

· FT

Premier League - England

Newcastle United3

Aston Villa0

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

150%

X24%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	40%	59%	53%	47%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	40%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	53%	47%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	19%	81%	48%	52%	73%	27%	89%	11%
	36%	64%	67%	33%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	19%	81%	48%	52%
	36%	64%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	73%	27%	89%	11%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

141%

X36%

223%

1st Score

159%

X4%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

15%

X-X

13%

2-2

13%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.9%

2-1

9.1%

1-0

8.8%

2-0

7.5%

1-2

6.4%

2-2

6.3%

3-1

5.5%

0-1

5.3%

3-0

4.7%

0-0

4.3%

3-2

3.9%

0-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aston Villa – Fulham prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).