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Burnley vs Crystal Palace 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 14)

Fair result
BurnleyBurnley

0–1

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
1.2Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Burnley would usually take 1.9 points and Crystal Palace 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Crystal Palace.

Burnley −1.9 pts vs chancesCrystal Palace +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Burnley vs Crystal Palace stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Burnley

Crystal Palace

4

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

2

3

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

0

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Burnley and Crystal Palace ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Crystal Palace win with 51% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Tottenham Hotspur – Crystal Palace prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Burnley vs Crystal Palace — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crystal Palace to win

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,363 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,683 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,718 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Burnley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burnley 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Crystal Palace Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crystal Palace 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Burnley vs Crystal Palace 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Burnley vs Crystal Palace. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - England
BurnleyBurnley0
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace1

Winner

2 51%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

0-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

123%
X26%
251%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Burnley44%56%79%21%
Crystal Palace24%76%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Burnley95%5%99%1%
Crystal Palace82%18%94%6%

1st Half

120%
X43%
237%

1st Score

133%
X10%
258%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

30%

X-2

18%

X-X

16%

1-1

12%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

14.1%

1-1

12.2%

0-2

10.0%

1-2

9.7%

0-0

9.6%

1-0

8.6%

2-1

5.4%

1-3

4.5%

0-3

4.5%

2-2

4.0%

2-0

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Tottenham Hotspur – Crystal Palace prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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