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Chelsea vs Everton 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 16)

Fair result
ChelseaChelsea

2–0

EvertonEverton
1.9Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Chelsea would usually take 1.8 points and Everton 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Chelsea.

Chelsea +1.2 pts vs chancesEverton −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Chelsea vs Everton stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Chelsea had more than twice the shots on target

Chelsea

Everton

5

Shots on target

2

5

Big chances

3

4

Corners

7

1

Yellow cards

0

59%

Possession

41%

The match between Chelsea and Everton ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Chelsea win with 58% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Arsenal – Everton prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Chelsea vs Everton — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea to win

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,955 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Chelsea Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,796 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Everton Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Everton 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Chelsea vs Everton 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chelsea vs Everton. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - England
ChelseaChelsea2
EvertonEverton0

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

158%
X21%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Chelsea17%83%47%53%
Everton45%55%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Chelsea73%27%89%11%
Everton92%8%98%2%

1st Half

149%
X37%
214%

1st Score

169%
X6%
226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

45%

X-1

20%

X-X

11%

2-2

6%

X-2

5%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

11.5%

1-1

10.4%

2-0

10.3%

2-1

9.9%

3-0

6.6%

0-1

5.6%

3-1

5.6%

0-0

5.6%

1-2

5.4%

2-2

4.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Arsenal – Everton prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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