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Sunderland vs Newcastle United

Sunderland vs Newcastle United 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 16)

Fair result

Sunderland

1–0

Newcastle United

0.5Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Sunderland would usually take 1.3 points and Newcastle United 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Newcastle United.

Sunderland +1.7 pts vs chancesNewcastle United −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sunderland vs Newcastle United stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Newcastle United had more than twice the shots on target

Sunderland

Newcastle United

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Sunderland and Newcastle United ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Newcastle United win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Sunderland vs Newcastle United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United to win

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,094 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,835 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 4,548 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,645 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Sunderland Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sunderland 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Newcastle United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sunderland vs Newcastle United 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sunderland vs Newcastle United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Sunderland1

Newcastle United0

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Premier League - England

Sunderland1

Newcastle United0

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

134%

X26%

239%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	64%	36%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	32%	68%	66%	34%	88%	12%	97%	3%
	29%	71%	62%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	32%	68%	66%	34%
	29%	71%	62%	38%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	88%	12%	97%	3%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

123%

X42%

234%

1st Score

136%

X8%

257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

X-2

17%

X-X

15%

1-1

14%

X-1

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

0-1

9.8%

1-0

9.7%

1-2

8.6%

2-1

7.7%

0-0

7.7%

0-2

6.4%

2-0

6.0%

2-2

5.4%

1-3

3.9%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).