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Burnley vs Manchester United

Burnley vs Manchester United 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Robbed

Manchester United drew despite more chances

Burnley

2–2

Manchester United

0.5Chances (xG)3.1

On these chances Burnley would usually take 0.2 points and Manchester United 2.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Manchester United.

Burnley +0.8 pts vs chancesManchester United −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Burnley vs Manchester United stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Manchester United had more than twice the shots on target

Burnley

Manchester United

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

35%

Possession

65%

The match between Burnley and Manchester United ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Manchester United win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Manchester United – AFC Bournemouth prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Burnley vs Manchester United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester United to win

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,840 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 73%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 4,559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester United ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Burnley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burnley 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,584 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Manchester United Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester United 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Manchester United 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 845 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Burnley vs Manchester United 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Burnley vs Manchester United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Burnley2

Manchester United2

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Premier League - England

Burnley2

Manchester United2

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

125%

X25%

250%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%	63%	37%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	41%	59%	75%	25%	92%	8%	98%	2%
	24%	76%	55%	45%	79%	21%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	41%	59%	75%	25%
	24%	76%	55%	45%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	92%	8%	98%	2%
	79%	21%	92%	8%

1st Half

120%

X38%

241%

1st Score

134%

X8%

258%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

35%

X-2

18%

1-1

12%

X-X

12%

X-1

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

11.5%

1-1

11.2%

1-2

9.4%

0-0

8.5%

0-2

8.5%

1-0

8.4%

2-1

5.9%

1-3

4.9%

2-2

4.6%

0-3

4.4%

2-0

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Manchester United – AFC Bournemouth prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).