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Liverpool vs Newcastle United 4-1 Score & Prediction Review
Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 24)
Liverpool4–1
Newcastle UnitedOn these chances Liverpool would usually take 2.3 points and Newcastle United 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Liverpool.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Newcastle United stats: how the match was played
Premier League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Liverpool had more than twice the shots on target
Liverpool
Newcastle United
7
Shots on target
2
7
Big chances
0
7
Corners
11
1
Yellow cards
3
55%
Possession
45%
Liverpool vs Newcastle United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Liverpool to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,073 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,362 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,994 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Liverpool ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 1,255 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).
Our model’s pick
Liverpool 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Newcastle United 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,593 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Liverpool vs Newcastle United 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Liverpool vs Newcastle United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Liverpool4
Newcastle United1Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Liverpool4Newcastle United1Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 85% | 41% | 59% |
| 51% | 49% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 33% | 85% | 15% |
| 94% | 6% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
46%
X-1
17%
X-X
10%
2-2
9%
X-2
6%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
12.0%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.6%
3-0
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
6.2%
0-1
4.6%
2-2
4.3%
1-2
4.1%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score