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Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 24)

Robbed

Crystal Palace drew despite more chances

Nottingham Forest

1–1

Crystal Palace

0.8Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Nottingham Forest would usually take 0.7 points and Crystal Palace 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Nottingham Forest.

Nottingham Forest +0.3 pts vs chancesCrystal Palace −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Crystal Palace had more than twice the shots on target

Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

33%

Possession

67%

The match between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Nottingham Forest win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nottingham Forest to win

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 546 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 4,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Nottingham Forest Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nottingham Forest 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Crystal Palace Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crystal Palace 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,279 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Nottingham Forest1

Crystal Palace1

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Premier League - England

Nottingham Forest1

Crystal Palace1

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

143%

X25%

232%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	61%	39%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%	82%	18%	93%	7%
	34%	66%	67%	33%	88%	12%	97%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%
	34%	66%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	93%	7%
	88%	12%	97%	4%

1st Half

129%

X45%

225%

1st Score

148%

X7%

246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

17%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

1-0

9.8%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

7.9%

1-2

7.6%

2-0

7.1%

0-0

6.6%

2-2

5.5%

0-2

5.0%

3-1

4.4%

3-0

3.5%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).