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Aston Villa vs Chelsea 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 29)

Fair result
Aston VillaAston Villa

1–4

ChelseaChelsea
1.2Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Aston Villa would usually take 1.0 points and Chelsea 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Chelsea.

Aston Villa −1.0 pts vs chancesChelsea +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Aston Villa vs Chelsea stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Chelsea had more than twice the shots on target

Aston Villa

Chelsea

4

Shots on target

8

3

Big chances

5

3

Corners

8

3

Yellow cards

2

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Aston Villa and Chelsea ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Aston Villa win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aston Villa – Manchester City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Aston Villa vs Chelsea — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Chelsea to win.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,526 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,448 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 2,373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Chelsea Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Aston Villa vs Chelsea. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - England
Aston VillaAston Villa1
ChelseaChelsea4

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

139%
X24%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT51%49%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Aston Villa26%74%56%44%
Chelsea27%73%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Aston Villa80%20%93%7%
Chelsea80%20%93%7%

1st Half

131%
X40%
229%

1st Score

148%
X5%
248%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

21%

X-X

14%

X-1

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.5%

2-1

8.6%

1-2

8.4%

1-0

6.9%

0-1

6.8%

2-2

6.5%

2-0

5.2%

0-2

5.1%

0-0

4.5%

3-1

4.4%

1-3

4.3%

3-2

3.5%

2-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aston Villa – Manchester City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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