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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 29)

Fair result

Brighton & Hove Albion

0–1

Arsenal

1.1Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Brighton & Hove Albion would usually take 1.8 points and Arsenal 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Arsenal.

Brighton & Hove Albion −1.8 pts vs chancesArsenal +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Brighton & Hove Albion had clearly more shots on target

Brighton & Hove Albion

Arsenal

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

59%

Possession

41%

The match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Arsenal win with 51% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Arsenal – Everton prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal to win

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,472 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 4,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Brighton & Hove Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brighton & Hove Albion 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 834 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Arsenal Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Arsenal 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 844 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Brighton & Hove Albion0

Arsenal1

Winner

2 51%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Premier League - England

Brighton & Hove Albion0

Arsenal1

Winner

2 51%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

123%

X26%

251%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	64%	36%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	44%	56%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%
	23%	77%	54%	46%	79%	21%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	44%	56%	77%	23%
	23%	77%	54%	46%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	93%	7%	98%	2%
	79%	21%	92%	8%

1st Half

125%

X40%

235%

1st Score

138%

X9%

253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

31%

X-2

16%

X-X

15%

1-1

14%

X-1

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

12.8%

1-1

11.3%

0-2

9.5%

0-0

9.2%

1-2

9.0%

1-0

7.5%

2-1

5.4%

0-3

4.8%

1-3

4.6%

2-2

4.5%

2-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Arsenal – Everton prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).