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Chelsea vs Newcastle United 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 30)

Smash-and-grab

Newcastle United won with less than half the chances

ChelseaChelsea

0–1

Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
1.9Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Chelsea would usually take 2.1 points and Newcastle United 0.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Chelsea.

Chelsea −2.1 pts vs chancesNewcastle United +2.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Chelsea vs Newcastle United stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Newcastle United had clearly more shots on target

Chelsea

Newcastle United

3

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

1

8

Corners

1

2

Yellow cards

2

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Chelsea and Newcastle United ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Chelsea win at 55% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Chelsea vs Newcastle United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea to win

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,689 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 2,384 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Chelsea Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Newcastle United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,358 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Chelsea vs Newcastle United 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chelsea vs Newcastle United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - England
ChelseaChelsea0
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

155%
X22%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%41%59%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Chelsea17%83%45%55%
Newcastle United40%60%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Chelsea71%29%88%12%
Newcastle United90%10%97%3%

1st Half

141%
X37%
223%

1st Score

160%
X5%
235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

16%

2-2

13%

X-X

12%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.2%

2-1

10.2%

1-0

9.3%

2-0

8.3%

3-1

6.3%

1-2

5.9%

2-2

5.7%

3-0

5.4%

0-1

5.3%

0-0

4.8%

3-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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