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Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Smash-and-grab

Crystal Palace won with fewer chances than Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace

3–1

Nottingham Forest

1.7Chances (xG)2.9

On these chances Crystal Palace would usually take 0.8 points and Nottingham Forest 2.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Nottingham Forest.

Crystal Palace +2.2 pts vs chancesNottingham Forest −2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Crystal Palace

Nottingham Forest

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Crystal Palace win with 38% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crystal Palace to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Nottingham Forest to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,165 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 4,561 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,670 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Crystal Palace Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crystal Palace 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Nottingham Forest Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nottingham Forest 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,660 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Crystal Palace3

Nottingham Forest1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Premier League - England

Crystal Palace3

Nottingham Forest1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

138%

X26%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	48%	52%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	30%	70%	61%	39%	84%	16%	94%	6%
	31%	69%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	30%	70%	61%	39%
	31%	69%	63%	37%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	94%	6%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

133%

X42%

225%

1st Score

152%

X7%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-X

15%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

0-1

8.9%

1-0

8.8%

2-1

8.4%

1-2

7.8%

0-0

7.4%

0-2

6.0%

2-0

5.9%

2-2

5.8%

3-1

3.7%

1-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — Recent Form

Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table. Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Crystal Palace

Nottingham Forest

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Crystal Palace

2/5

Nottingham Forest

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Crystal Palace

3/5

Nottingham Forest

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Crystal Palace

3/5

Nottingham Forest

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Crystal Palace

1/5

Nottingham Forest

4/5

First Half Result

Crystal Palace

2/5

Nottingham Forest

4/5

Correct Score

Crystal Palace

0/5

Nottingham Forest

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).