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Liverpool vs Manchester City

Liverpool vs Manchester City 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Liverpool

0–3

Manchester City

1.2Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Liverpool would usually take 1.2 points and Manchester City 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Manchester City.

Liverpool −1.2 pts vs chancesManchester City +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Liverpool vs Manchester City stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Liverpool had clearly more shots on target

Liverpool

Manchester City

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

35%

Possession

65%

The match between Liverpool and Manchester City ended 0-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Manchester City win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aston Villa – Manchester City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Liverpool vs Manchester City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City to win

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,605 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,461 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 2,384 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 26%

Our track record

In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Liverpool Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,473 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Manchester City Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Manchester City 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 844 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Liverpool vs Manchester City 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Liverpool vs Manchester City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Liverpool0

Manchester City3

Winner

X2 65%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Premier League - England

Liverpool0

Manchester City3

Winner

X2 65%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

135%

X23%

241%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%	52%	48%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	59%	41%	82%	18%	93%	7%
	25%	75%	54%	46%	78%	22%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	59%	41%
	25%	75%	54%	46%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	93%	7%
	78%	22%	92%	8%

1st Half

137%

X36%

226%

1st Score

152%

X5%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

2-2

21%

X-X

14%

X-1

13%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

1-2

8.8%

2-1

8.0%

0-1

7.0%

1-0

6.6%

2-2

6.3%

0-2

5.8%

2-0

4.7%

1-3

4.6%

0-0

4.6%

3-1

3.9%

2-3

3.6%

3-2

3.3%

0-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Liverpool vs Manchester City — Recent Form

Manchester City have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Manchester City

Liverpool

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Liverpool

2/5

Manchester City

5/5

Both Teams to Score

Liverpool

1/5

Manchester City

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Liverpool

2/5

Manchester City

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Liverpool

5/5

Manchester City

3/5

First Half Result

Liverpool

1/5

Manchester City

4/5

Correct Score

Liverpool

0/5

Manchester City

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aston Villa – Manchester City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).