Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Liverpool vs Manchester City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Manchester City to win
Our track record
In 3,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 2,413 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,046 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,339 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.0%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 2,015 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Liverpool 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Manchester City 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 981 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Liverpool vs Manchester City — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Liverpool vs Manchester City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Liverpool–
Manchester City–Winner
X2 65%
BTTS**
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Liverpool–Manchester City–Winner
X2 65%
BTTS**
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29% | 71% | 60% | 40% |
 | 25% | 75% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
2-2
21%
X-X
14%
X-1
13%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
5.8%
0-0
4.8%
1-3
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
3.8%
0-3
3.6%
2-3
3.5%
3-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Liverpool vs Manchester City — Recent Form
Manchester City have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Liverpool have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Manchester CityLiverpoolOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
LiverpoolManchester CityBoth Teams to Score
LiverpoolManchester CityOver/Under 2.5 Goals
LiverpoolManchester CityOver/Under 3.5 Goals
LiverpoolManchester CityFirst Half Result
LiverpoolManchester CityCorrect Score
LiverpoolManchester City