- Home
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 0-1 Score & Prediction Review
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Newcastle United0–1
Aston VillaOn these chances Newcastle United would usually take 1.1 points and Aston Villa 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Newcastle United.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Newcastle United vs Aston Villa stats: how the match was played
Premier League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Aston Villa had more than twice the shots on target
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
1
Shots on target
3
0
Big chances
3
4
Corners
5
6
Yellow cards
2
49%
Possession
51%
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Newcastle United to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,113 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.4% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 5,734 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,354 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,987 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Newcastle United 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Newcastle United 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Aston Villa 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Newcastle United0
Aston Villa1Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Newcastle United0Aston Villa1Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 59% | 41% |
| 28% | 72% | 59% | 41% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
| 82% | 18% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
21%
1-1
20%
X-X
15%
X-1
13%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-0
7.9%
0-1
7.4%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
6.1%
2-0
5.5%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
3.8%
3-2
3.2%
2-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — Recent Form
Aston Villa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Newcastle United have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedBoth Teams to Score
Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedFirst Half Result
Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedCorrect Score
Aston VillaNewcastle United