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Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Get our AI football prediction and stats for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United to win

Our model 39%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,059 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Our model 59%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,539 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Our model 55%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,185 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Our model 68%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,856 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Our model 41%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,563 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Newcastle United Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United 0–1 goals

Our model 58%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 978 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 55–60%.

Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa 0–1 goals

Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,618 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities

Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.

Premier League - England

Newcastle United–

Aston Villa–

Winner

12 74%

BTTS**

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Premier League - England

Newcastle United–

Aston Villa–

Winner

12 74%

BTTS**

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

139%

X26%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	58%	42%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	58%	42%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	30%	70%	62%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	58%	42%
	30%	70%	62%	38%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

130%

X41%

229%

1st Score

149%

X6%

245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

21%

X-X

14%

X-1

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

2-1

8.8%

1-0

8.3%

1-2

8.3%

0-1

7.4%

2-2

6.4%

0-0

6.2%

2-0

5.9%

0-2

5.0%

3-1

4.0%

1-3

3.3%

3-0

3.2%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — Recent Form

Newcastle United have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Aston Villa have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Newcastle United

Aston Villa

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Aston Villa

2/5

Newcastle United

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Aston Villa

2/5

Newcastle United

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Aston Villa

3/5

Newcastle United

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Aston Villa

3/5

Newcastle United

2/5

First Half Result

Aston Villa

3/5

Newcastle United

1/5

Correct Score

Aston Villa

0/5

Newcastle United

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction