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Spartak Moskva vs Krasnodar 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Spartak MoskvaSpartak Moskva

1–2

KrasnodarKrasnodar
1.5Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Spartak Moskva would usually take 1.4 points and Krasnodar 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Spartak Moskva.

Spartak Moskva −1.4 pts vs chancesKrasnodar +1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Spartak Moskva vs Krasnodar stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Spartak Moskva

Krasnodar

3

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

1

6

Corners

7

1

Yellow cards

3

63%

Possession

37%

The match between Spartak Moskva and Krasnodar ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Spartak Moskva win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Spartak Moskva – Rubin Kazan prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Spartak Moskva vs Krasnodar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva to win

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Spartak Moskva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Krasnodar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krasnodar 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 75%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Spartak Moskva vs Krasnodar 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Spartak Moskva vs Krasnodar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
Spartak MoskvaSpartak Moskva1
KrasnodarKrasnodar2

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

151%
X27%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Spartak Moskva21%79%52%48%
Krasnodar41%59%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Spartak Moskva78%22%92%8%
Krasnodar92%8%98%2%

1st Half

138%
X43%
219%

1st Score

160%
X7%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

18%

X-X

17%

2-2

12%

X-2

8%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

1-0

11.3%

2-1

9.9%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

7.5%

0-1

6.6%

1-2

5.8%

2-2

5.3%

3-0

5.0%

3-1

4.8%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Spartak Moskva – Rubin Kazan prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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