Always on the scoresheet
0/10Hearts scored in all of their last 10 (league 27% fail to score).
Hearts vs St. Mirren Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Wasteful
St. Mirren are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
−3goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 10
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: St. Mirren 13% to winHearts 70%
Hearts vs St. Mirren score prediction
Premiership
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Hearts expected to score more than twice as many as St. Mirren
2.6 goals in total, a little under the Premiership average of 2.8.
goals expected
Hearts1.8
St. Mirren0.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Hearts vs St. Mirren: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Hearts vs St. Mirren — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premiership
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Hearts to win
Our model 56%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 1,737 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,315 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 5,011 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 3,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 34%
Our track record
In 2,132 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Hearts Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Hearts 2+ goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 2,713 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.2% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
St. Mirren Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
St. Mirren 0–1 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 2,531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Hearts vs St. Mirren — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Hearts vs St. Mirren. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Hearts–
St. Mirren–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Hearts–St. Mirren–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
156%
X23%
221%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 47% | 53% |
| 43% | 57% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
137%
X41%
222%
1st Score
157%
X6%
237%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
33%
X-1
18%
X-X
13%
2-2
12%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-1
11.0%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
10.3%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
6.0%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-2
3.2%
0-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Hearts vs St. Mirren: the stats that stand out
Premiership
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Hearts: always on the scoresheet
0/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Hearts vs St. Mirren: attack vs defence
Premiership
How to read it
other Premiership teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Hearts: good attack, good defence (1.61 xG, 1.01 xGA a game)
- St. Mirren: good attack, good defence (1.49 xG, 1.33 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Hearts vs St. Mirren form and luck check
Premiership
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premiership gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- HeartsBookmakers: 70% to win today.−1.7
- St. MirrenBookmakers: 13% to win today.Wasteful · −3 goals−0.4
Last 5 matches
HeartsD
L
W
W
W
St. MirrenL
L
L
W
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Hearts 3rd of 12 · St. Mirren 7th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Hearts vs St. Mirren: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premiership
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premiership gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Hearts games more often than the Premiership average (52%), in St. Mirren games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Hearts8 of 10
St. Mirren4 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Hearts8 of 10
St. Mirren3 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 227 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Hearts vs St. Mirren corners, cards and goal times
Premiership
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameBoth sides score early
Hearts
St. Mirren
7.0
Corners won · league 5.1
4.4
4.0
Corners conceded · league 5.1
6.4
1.8
Cards · league 2.0
2.2
2.8
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
1.3
63%
Goals before half-time · league 47%
64%
21%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
18%
42%
Conceded before half-time · league 47%
54%
33%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
15%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Hearts2/5
St. Mirren4/5
Both Teams to Score
Hearts5/5
St. Mirren2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Hearts3/5
St. Mirren3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Hearts4/5
St. Mirren4/5
First Half Result
Hearts1/5
St. Mirren0/5
Correct Score
Hearts1/5
St. Mirren0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction