Hard to break
3/10Motherwell conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Clinical
Kilmarnock are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+3goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Kilmarnock 30% to winMotherwell 44%
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell score prediction
Premiership
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.8 goals in total, in line with the Premiership average of 2.8.
goals expected
Kilmarnock1.3Motherwell1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premiership
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Motherwell to win
Our model 37%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 2,040 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.4% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 3,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 39%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 1,967 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.4% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Kilmarnock Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Kilmarnock 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Motherwell Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Motherwell 0–1 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 2,605 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Kilmarnock–
Motherwell–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Kilmarnock–Motherwell–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
136%
X27%
237%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 61% | 39% |
| 28% | 72% | 60% | 40% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
131%
X39%
229%
1st Score
146%
X6%
248%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
21%
2-2
21%
X-X
15%
X-2
14%
X-1
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-0
8.3%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
2-0
5.6%
1-3
3.8%
3-1
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: the stats that stand out
Premiership
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Motherwell: hard to break
3/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: attack vs defence
Premiership
How to read it
other Premiership teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Kilmarnock: weak attack, weak defence (1.36 xG, 1.69 xGA a game)
- Motherwell: good attack, weak defence (1.49 xG, 1.56 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Kilmarnock vs Motherwell form and luck check
Premiership
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premiership gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- KilmarnockBookmakers: 30% to win today.Clinical · +3 goals+2.9
- MotherwellBookmakers: 44% to win today.−1.2
Last 5 matches
KilmarnockD
W
D
L
L
MotherwellL
L
L
W
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Kilmarnock 12th of 12 · Motherwell 4th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premiership
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premiership gamesBTTS = both teams scoredKilmarnock and Motherwell games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Premiership average (55%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Kilmarnock6 of 10
Motherwell6 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Kilmarnock5 of 10
Motherwell5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 227 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Kilmarnock vs Motherwell corners, cards and goal times
Premiership
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameMotherwell score early
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
4.5
Corners won · league 5.1
4.9
5.7
Corners conceded · league 5.1
5.5
2.3
Cards · league 2.0
1.9
2.1
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
2.1
38%
Goals before half-time · league 47%
62%
13%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
23%
53%
Conceded before half-time · league 47%
60%
24%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
20%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Kilmarnock1/5
Motherwell3/5
Both Teams to Score
Kilmarnock1/5
Motherwell2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Kilmarnock1/5
Motherwell2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Kilmarnock4/5
Motherwell3/5
First Half Result
Kilmarnock1/5
Motherwell1/5
Correct Score
Kilmarnock1/5
Motherwell0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction