Shot-shy
5/10Aberdeen failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 27%).
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Wasteful
St. Mirren are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
−3goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 10
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: St. Mirren 23% to winAberdeen 52%
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren score prediction
Premiership
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.4 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the Premiership average is 2.8).
goals expected
Aberdeen1.3
St. Mirren1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Aberdeen vs St. Mirren: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premiership
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Aberdeen to win
Our model 43%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 58%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 5,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 69%
Our track record
In 3,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 39%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 1,967 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.4% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Aberdeen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Aberdeen 0–1 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 971 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 55–60%.
St. Mirren Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
St. Mirren 0–1 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 2,605 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Aberdeen vs St. Mirren. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Aberdeen–
St. Mirren–Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Aberdeen–St. Mirren–Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Full Time
143%
X25%
232%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 57% | 43% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% |
| 32% | 68% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
133%
X39%
228%
1st Score
149%
X6%
245%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
19%
X-1
14%
X-X
14%
X-2
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
7.5%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.4%
3-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren: the stats that stand out
Premiership
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Aberdeen: shot-shy and slow starters
5/10Slow starters
3/10Aberdeen scored first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Aberdeen vs St. Mirren: attack vs defence
Premiership
How to read it
other Premiership teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Aberdeen: weak attack, weak defence (1.02 xG, 1.63 xGA a game)
- St. Mirren: good attack, good defence (1.49 xG, 1.33 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Aberdeen vs St. Mirren form and luck check
Premiership
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premiership gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- AberdeenBookmakers: 52% to win today.+1.3
- St. MirrenBookmakers: 23% to win today.Wasteful · −3 goals−0.4
Last 5 matches
AberdeenD
W
D
L
L
St. MirrenL
L
L
W
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Aberdeen 10th of 12 · St. Mirren 7th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Aberdeen vs St. Mirren: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premiership
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premiership gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Aberdeen and St. Mirren games less often than the Premiership average (52%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Aberdeen4 of 10
St. Mirren4 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Aberdeen3 of 10
St. Mirren3 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 227 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Aberdeen vs St. Mirren corners, cards and goal times
Premiership
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameSt. Mirren score early, Aberdeen late
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
4.8
Corners won · league 5.1
4.4
6.0
Corners conceded · league 5.1
6.4
2.5
Cards · league 2.0
2.2
2.2
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
1.3
45%
Goals before half-time · league 47%
64%
45%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
18%
54%
Conceded before half-time · league 47%
54%
15%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
15%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Aberdeen1/5
St. Mirren4/5
Both Teams to Score
Aberdeen2/5
St. Mirren2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Aberdeen1/5
St. Mirren3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Aberdeen4/5
St. Mirren4/5
First Half Result
Aberdeen3/5
St. Mirren0/5
Correct Score
Aberdeen1/5
St. Mirren0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction