Hard to break
1/10Peñarol conceded first in only 1 of their last 10 (league 45%).
Peñarol vs Atlético Progreso Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 10)
Clinical
Peñarol are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+4goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 8 with xG
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Peñarol 70% to winProgreso 11%
Peñarol vs Progreso score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Peñarol expected to score more than twice as many as Progreso
2.6 goals in total, a little over the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Peñarol1.9
Progreso0.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Peñarol vs Progreso: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Peñarol vs Progreso — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Peñarol to win
Our model 59%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 1,752 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,363 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 2,794 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,633 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Peñarol ahead at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 51%
Our track record
In 6,562 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Peñarol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Peñarol 2+ goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Progreso Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Progreso 0–1 goals
Our model 82%Bookmakers 85%
Our track record
In 1,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Peñarol vs Progreso — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Peñarol vs Progreso. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
LIVE
Peñarol0
Progreso1Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Peñarol0Progreso1Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
159%
X23%
217%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 54% | 46% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 81% | 49% | 51% |
| 49% | 51% | 82% | 18% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
142%
X42%
216%
1st Score
166%
X8%
226%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
37%
X-1
21%
X-X
15%
2-2
8%
X-2
6%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.1%
2-0
11.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
10.9%
0-0
7.8%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Peñarol vs Progreso: the stats that stand out
Primera Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Peñarol: hard to break and banker as favourites
1/10Banker as favourites
7/10Peñarol won 7 of 10 as favourites (league 44%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Peñarol vs Progreso: attack vs defence
Primera Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Primera Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Peñarol: good attack, good defence (1.32 xG, 1.09 xGA a game)
- Progreso: weak attack, good defence (0.89 xG, 1.12 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Peñarol vs Progreso form and luck check
Primera Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Primera Division gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- PeñarolBookmakers: 70% to win today. · 8 of 10 gamesClinical · +4 goals+3.5
- ProgresoBookmakers: 11% to win today. · 7 of 10 games−1.3
Last 5 matches
PeñarolW
D
W
W
W
ProgresoL
W
W
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Peñarol 1st of 16 · Progreso 15th of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Peñarol vs Progreso: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredPeñarol and Progreso games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Primera Division average (44%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 44%
Peñarol6 of 10
Progreso5 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
Peñarol6 of 10
Progreso5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 294 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Peñarol vs Progreso corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameProgreso score late
Peñarol
Progreso
4.2
Corners won · league 4.5
3.6
3.5
Corners conceded · league 4.5
5.8
2.8
Cards · league 3.0
2.9
2.1
Opponents' cards · league 3.0
2.4
50%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
30%
20%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
50%
57%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
29%
14%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
43%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Peñarol4/5
Progreso1/5
Both Teams to Score
Peñarol2/5
Progreso0/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Peñarol2/5
Progreso1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Peñarol4/5
Progreso3/5
First Half Result
Peñarol3/5
Progreso0/5
Correct Score
Peñarol1/5
Progreso0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction