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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Pro League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 29)

Fair result
Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise

2–0

DenderDender
0.8Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Union Saint-Gilloise would usually take 1.7 points and Dender 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Union Saint-Gilloise.

Union Saint-Gilloise +1.3 pts vs chancesDender −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender stats: how the match was played

Pro League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Union Saint-Gilloise had more than twice the shots on target

Union Saint-Gilloise

Dender

3

Shots on target

1

2

Big chances

0

5

Corners

5

0

Yellow cards

1

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Union Saint-Gilloise and Dender ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Union Saint-Gilloise win with 68% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Union Saint-Gilloise – Cercle Brugge prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Pro League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Union Saint-Gilloise to win

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 618 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.6% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,694 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,840 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Union Saint-Gilloise ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 4,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Union Saint-Gilloise Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,474 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Dender Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dender 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 86%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 598 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Pro League - Belgium
Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise2
DenderDender0

Winner

1 68%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

168%
X20%
212%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Union Saint-Gilloise14%86%42%58%
Dender56%44%86%14%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Union Saint-Gilloise69%31%87%13%
Dender97%3%99%1%

1st Half

146%
X38%
217%

1st Score

168%
X7%
225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

43%

X-1

19%

X-X

12%

2-2

7%

X-2

6%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.4%

2-0

13.2%

2-1

10.0%

1-1

9.5%

3-0

8.7%

0-0

7.0%

3-1

6.0%

0-1

4.6%

2-2

3.4%

1-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Union Saint-Gilloise – Cercle Brugge prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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