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Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden

Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden 4-3 Score & Prediction Review

Pro League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Smash-and-grab

Mechelen won with less than half the chances

Mechelen

4–3

Sint-Truiden

0.9Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances Mechelen would usually take 0.7 points and Sint-Truiden 2.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sint-Truiden.

Mechelen +2.3 pts vs chancesSint-Truiden −2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden stats: how the match was played

Pro League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sint-Truiden had more than twice the shots on target

Mechelen

Sint-Truiden

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Mechelen and Sint-Truiden ended 4-3. Our AI model predicted an Sint-Truiden win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Mechelen – Genk prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Pro League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sint-Truiden to win

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,520 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,748 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,363 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,996 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Mechelen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mechelen 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,699 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Sint-Truiden Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sint-Truiden 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,023 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden 4-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Pro League - Belgium

Mechelen4

Sint-Truiden3

Winner

X2 74%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

Pro League - Belgium

Mechelen4

Sint-Truiden3

Winner

X2 74%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

126%

X25%

248%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	37%	63%	69%	31%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	21%	79%	51%	49%	77%	23%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	37%	63%	69%	31%
	21%	79%	51%	49%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	77%	23%	90%	10%

1st Half

125%

X40%

235%

1st Score

142%

X6%

252%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

30%

1-1

16%

X-2

15%

X-X

14%

X-1

10%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.1%

1-2

9.7%

0-1

9.3%

0-2

7.9%

2-1

7.0%

1-0

6.6%

0-0

6.2%

2-2

6.0%

1-3

4.9%

0-3

4.5%

2-0

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden — Recent Form

Mechelen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table. Sint-Truiden have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Mechelen

Sint-Truiden

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Sint-Truiden

2/5

Mechelen

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Sint-Truiden

1/5

Mechelen

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sint-Truiden

3/5

Mechelen

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Sint-Truiden

3/5

Mechelen

2/5

First Half Result

Sint-Truiden

1/5

Mechelen

1/5

Correct Score

Sint-Truiden

0/5

Mechelen

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Mechelen – Genk prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).