Always on the scoresheet
0/10Al Nassr scored in all of their last 10 (league 25% fail to score).
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Al Ahli vs Al Nassr Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Pro League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Clinical
Al Nassr are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+4goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Al Nassr 46% to winAl Ahli 31%
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr score prediction
Pro League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.1 goals in total, a little over the Pro League average of 3.0.
goals expected
Al Ahli1.4Al Nassr1.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Pro League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Al Ahli to win
Our model 46%Bookmakers 31%
Our track record
In 360 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 31.0% than to our 45–50%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 59%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 5,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 5,309 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 2,417 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 37%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 1,937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.9% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Al Ahli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Al Ahli 0–1 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,785 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Al Nassr Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Al Nassr 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 388 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Al Ahli–
Al Nassr–Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Al Ahli–Al Nassr–Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Full Time
146%
X25%
230%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 54% | 46% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 51% | 49% |
| 33% | 67% | 65% | 35% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
137%
X37%
226%
1st Score
152%
X5%
243%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
2-2
17%
X-1
15%
X-X
12%
X-2
9%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.5%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
5.1%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: the stats that stand out
Pro League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Al Nassr: always on the scoresheet and banker as favourites
0/10Banker as favourites
8/10Al Nassr won 8 of 10 as favourites (league 59%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: attack vs defence
Pro League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Pro League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Al Ahli: good attack, good defence (2.25 xG, 1.33 xGA a game)
- Al Nassr: good attack, good defence (1.76 xG, 0.94 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Al Ahli vs Al Nassr form and luck check
Pro League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Pro League gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Al AhliBookmakers: 31% to win today.−3.0
- Al NassrBookmakers: 46% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals+2.2
Last 5 matches
Al NassrW
W
W
W
D
Al AhliL
W
W
W
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Al Ahli 4th of 18 · Al Nassr 2nd of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Pro League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Pro League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredAl Ahli and Al Nassr games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Pro League average (56%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 56%
Al Ahli10 of 10
Al Nassr8 of 10
BTTSleague 56%
Al Ahli6 of 10
Al Nassr7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 338 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Al Ahli vs Al Nassr corners, cards and goal times
Pro League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 2.0
- Goals before half-time: league 46%
- Goals after 75': league 25%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Al Nassr4/5
Al Ahli4/5
Both Teams to Score
Al Nassr3/5
Al Ahli3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Al Nassr3/5
Al Ahli5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Al Nassr2/5
Al Ahli0/5
First Half Result
Al Nassr2/5
Al Ahli3/5
Correct Score
Al Nassr0/5
Al Ahli0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction