Shot-shy
5/10Vasco da Gama failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 25%).
São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 31)
Unlucky
Vasco da Gama are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−7points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. São Paulo are also behind their chances: about −6 points.
São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little under the Serie A average of 2.7.
goals expected
São Paulo1.5Vasco da Gama1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →The match São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama will be played on Sunday, October 18 as part of the 2026 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 31 of the Serie A, played in Brazil. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
São Paulo–
Vasco da Gama–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
São Paulo–Vasco da Gama–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
149%
X26%
225%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 55% | 45% |
| 39% | 61% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
133%
X47%
220%
1st Score
154%
X8%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
X-1
18%
X-X
18%
2-2
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
10.2%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Vasco da Gama: shot-shy and slow starters
5/10Slow starters
2/10Vasco da Gama scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama: attack vs defence
Serie A
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- São Paulo: good attack, good defence (1.64 xG, 1.17 xGA a game)
- Vasco da Gama: good attack, good defence (1.90 xG, 1.21 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesBoth sides are getting less than their chances usually bring
- São PauloWasteful · −5 goals−5.9
- Vasco da GamaWasteful · −6 goals−6.7
Last 5 matches
São PauloL
W
L
W
W
Vasco da GamaW
W
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: São Paulo 10th of 20 · Vasco da Gama 8th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Vasco da Gama games less often than the Serie A average (55%), in São Paulo games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
São Paulo4 of 10
Vasco da Gama5 of 10
BTTSleague 55%
São Paulo6 of 10
Vasco da Gama4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 397 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameSão Paulo score early, Vasco da Gama late
São Paulo
Vasco da Gama
7.3
Corners won · league 5.1
6.1
4.7
Corners conceded · league 5.1
3.7
1.6
Cards · league 2.5
1.9
2.6
Opponents' cards · league 2.5
1.3
70%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
25%
0%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
42%
25%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
23%
17%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
31%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Vasco da Gama4/5
São Paulo4/5
Both Teams to Score
Vasco da Gama4/5
São Paulo5/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Vasco da Gama2/5
São Paulo4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Vasco da Gama2/5
São Paulo5/5
First Half Result
Vasco da Gama3/5
São Paulo3/5
Correct Score
Vasco da Gama1/5
São Paulo1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction