Hard to break
3/10Milan conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Hard to break
Milan conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 46%).
3/10Conceded first · Milan
Bookmakers: Milan 54% to winSassuolo 21%
Sassuolo vs Milan score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Milan expected to create clearly more
2.7 goals in total, a little over the Serie A average of 2.5.
goals expected
Sassuolo1.1Milan1.6Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Sassuolo vs Milan: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Sassuolo vs Milan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Milan to win
Our model 46%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 3,371 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,319 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 2,771 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 4,431 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 45%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Sassuolo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Sassuolo 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 1,544 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.2% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Milan Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Milan 0–1 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Sassuolo vs Milan — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Sassuolo vs Milan. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Sassuolo–
Milan–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Sassuolo–Milan–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
127%
X27%
246%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 63% | 71% | 29% |
| 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
123%
X45%
233%
1st Score
143%
X8%
249%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
26%
X-X
17%
X-2
16%
1-1
14%
X-1
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.6%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
1-3
4.5%
2-0
4.3%
0-3
4.0%
2-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Sassuolo vs Milan: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Milan: hard to break
3/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Sassuolo vs Milan: attack vs defence
Serie A
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Sassuolo: good attack, weak defence (1.63 xG, 1.67 xGA a game)
- Milan: good attack, good defence (1.48 xG, 1.25 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Sassuolo vs Milan form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- SassuoloBookmakers: 21% to win today.−1.9
- MilanBookmakers: 54% to win today.−1.7
Last 5 matches
MilanW
D
D
W
W
SassuoloL
W
D
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Sassuolo 13th of 20 · Milan 5th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Sassuolo vs Milan: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Sassuolo and Milan games more often than the Serie A average (47%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Sassuolo7 of 10
Milan6 of 10
BTTSleague 47%
Sassuolo7 of 10
Milan6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 370 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Sassuolo vs Milan corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameSassuolo score late
Sassuolo
Milan
3.7
Corners won · league 4.4
2.9
6.0
Corners conceded · league 4.4
3.3
1.7
Cards · league 1.9
2.2
2.6
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
2.1
29%
Goals before half-time · league 42%
13%
36%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
27%
27%
Conceded before half-time · league 42%
50%
33%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
25%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Milan2/5
Sassuolo3/5
Both Teams to Score
Milan3/5
Sassuolo4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Milan1/5
Sassuolo2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Milan4/5
Sassuolo3/5
First Half Result
Milan3/5
Sassuolo3/5
Correct Score
Milan1/5
Sassuolo0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction